讲座时间：9月17日9:00-12:00

讲座地点：管楼G506

讲座主题：AI's Double-Edged Sword: Investment, Data, and the Risk of Default

讲座嘉宾简介

肖亚军，西交利物浦国际商公司副教授，主要研究方向为资产定价与市场摩擦、企业融资与信用风险，以及宏观经济与银行业之间的相互作用。法兰克福歌德大学金融学博士，曾任都柏林国立大学商公司金融系讲师、悉尼科技大学商公司金融系讲师，以及弗莱堡大学经济公司讲师。在Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis、Review of Finance、Journal of Money、Credit and Banking、Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control等主流学术期刊发表多篇高水平论文。参与多项国家级和省部级项目。

讲座摘要

This paper examines how AI investment and data assets influence corporate credit risk. For Chinese listed firms, we develop four complementary measures of AI investment—asset-based, labor-based, LLM-based, and text-based—and link them to firms' distance-to-default. We find a critical distinction: AI investment at a market-driven, benchmark level reduces default risk, but excessive, firm-specific investment beyond this benchmark significantly elevates it, eroding profitability and aligning with overinvestment motives. The dominance of this latter effect results in a negative overall relationship between total AI investment and credit risk. We identify cash flow risk as the transmission channel, showing that benchmark-level AI improves cash flow quality, while excessive investment deteriorates it. Furthermore, high-quality data assets complement benchmark-level AI investment by mitigating cash flow volatility, but this benefit dissipates when investment becomes excessive. These findings underscore that the impact of AI on firm risk is contingent on both investment levels and data quality, and that these effects on cash flow translate directly to credit risk.